Sizing up Broncos’ prolific run of NFL draft trades: Did Denver come out ahead?

Every NFL team loves its draftees the day they’re selected.

Nobody goes to a group of reporters after a day of April work and says, “Boy, that didn’t go our way.”

Even considering the rose-colored baseline every player gets at the outset of his career, Broncos general manager George Paton and coach Sean Payton seemed particularly pleased Friday night that they were able to land LSU defensive lineman Sai’Vion Jones at the end of the third round.

“He fits our mold of defensive line,” Paton said after engineering a trade up to No. 101 overall, noting Jones’ size, strength, versatility and growing pass-rush arsenal. “I think what sticks out with him is just how hard he plays. The motor — he goes 110 miles per hour every play. So he fits in with our group.”

Payton indicated the Broncos didn’t just think he’d be gone by their first Saturday pick (No. 111 overall), but they were surprised he lasted as long as he did.

“Both George and I felt like, 14 picks earlier, he was going to be a hard one to get,” Payton said. “We just felt like that player was going to come off the board. Fortunately for us, he was there still.”

If Jones goes on to have a productive NFL career, the Broncos will have that trade — but also two others that preceded it — to thank.

If Paton and Payton hadn’t moved back twice earlier Friday, they wouldn’t have had the capital to convince Philadelphia to trade them No. 101.

Those are just some of the moving parts from a wild draft weekend on the trade front for the Broncos.

They started with seven picks and finished with seven, but that’s about the only symmetry. Denver swung four trades — three back and one up — involving a total of 20 picks. At one point or another, they held 17 different slots out of 257 total.

Of their original set, the only pick Denver actually used was No. 20 on Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron. The Broncos actually considered trading back from there, too, Paton said Thursday night, to take a running back (Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, sources said) later in the first round.

Instead, they happily nabbed Barron but then had to wait out a rugged start to the second round in which tantalizing skill position players came flying off the board.

The Broncos knew they’d have to get exceedingly lucky for Henderson, fellow OSU back Quinshon Judkins or LSU tight end Mason Taylor to make it to No. 51. Indeed, all three and others were gone by No. 42.

Payton and Paton, though, had fallen in love with UCF running back R.J. Harvey.

As their pick at No. 51 approached, they sized up the teams behind them — Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, the L.A. Chargers and Buffalo — and saw nobody in desperate need of a running back.

They’d been talking about a trade back with Carolina, a whopping four picks per side to make the math work, and executed it.

“The framework happens before in a lot of these trades, especially with Carolina,” Paton said.

Then Detroit wanted to move up from No. 60 to No. 57, a jump over two more teams with terrific running backs in Houston and Baltimore.

Denver figured it could bump back again and still get Harvey. Well, probably.

“The risk you run isn’t necessarily with the in-between teams, it’s the potential team that may (trade into the gap),” Payton said. “It certainly paid off.”

The end result of those trades slid Denver up in both the third round (from No. 85 to 74) and the fourth (from No. 122 to No. 111) and turned a sixth (No. 208) into a fourth (No. 130). Then the Broncos used Nos. 111, 130 and a sixth-rounder to move up to No. 101 for Jones, plus No. 134, which became Alabama edge rusher Que Robinson.

According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, one method of several for determining the value of draft picks, the Broncos came out ahead on their first two trade backs (plus-10.2 points and plus-12, respectively), which is to be expected.

The trade up for Jones ended up being perhaps their best work.

They came out slightly ahead (plus-6.4 points) on the move-up for the promising 21-year-old, who had 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks for the Tigers last fall. Usually, teams pay at least a small premium for moving up the board.

Denver’s first three trades netted a combined 28.6 points. That’s the equivalent of No. 157 overall, a mid-fifth-round pick.

More practically: Without the pair of fourth-rounders acquired in the trade-backs, they likely don’t get Jones. Then they got good value on the trade-up, too.

Denver’s final move was to slide back from No. 197 overall in exchange for Nos. 216 and 241. That was the only trade that Denver sacrificed value (minus-6.6 points). The end goal was clear: Two darts rather than one.

The Broncos got punter Jeremy Crawshaw at No. 216 and then were able to secure lottery ticket tight end Caleb Lohner at No. 241 rather than competing for him in the post-draft free agency rush.

All in all, the Broncos went best player available in Round 1 and then used the way the board stacked up on Day 2 to squeeze a little extra juice out of their positioning, create some value and land three players they wanted on Day 2 rather than two.

Whether it pays off, of course, remains to be seen.

Broncos’ 2025 NFL draft trades

According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, a method of determining the value of picks in the NFL draft, the Broncos came out ahead in terms of pick value after making four trades over the weekend. Here’s a look (Mobile users, tap here to see the charts):

Back to No. 57

Back again to No. 60

Up to No. 101

Back from No. 197

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