Nuggets vs. Clippers scouting report: Matchups, how to watch and series predictions

As the Denver Nuggets enter the 2025 NBA playoffs, a breakdown of their first-round series matchup against the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers:

Who has the edge?

Guards

Glass half full: In the last three postseasons combined, James Harden has averaged 19.8 points on 40.9% shooting in 29 games. Jamal Murray might not be as distinguished as a surefire future Hall of Famer, but Denver’s lead guard is indisputably the more certified playoff riser. Glass half empty: This is still James Harden we’re talking about. His late All-NBA push coincided with the Clippers’ strong finish. He went for 26.2 points per game (47% from the floor, 39.7% from three) and 8.9 assists while his team went 18-3 in the last 21. Christian Braun will have his hands full. That’s not to mention Kris Dunn, the best perimeter defender in this series, a possible headache for Murray and a bitter reminder of the Nuggets’ wasted taxpayer mid-level exception. The Clippers acquired him last summer in the same sign-and-trade deal used to offload Russell Westbrook. Now, Dunn is starting in Los Angeles for the same salary ($5.2 million) Denver is paying Dario Saric to sit at the end of the bench. Edge: Clippers.

Wings

It’s usually a safe bet that a playoff series involving Kawhi Leonard will be decided by Kawhi Leonard’s health. The Clippers lost a first-round series in six games last year — he played in two of them. They lost a first-round series in five games the previous year — he played in two. They went 25-11 this season when the two-time Finals MVP played and 25-21 when he didn’t. Unfortunately for Denver, Leonard happens to be healthy right now. His 0.424 points per touch this season ranked ninth-best in the league (minimum 1,500 touches). In first place? His teammate Norman Powell at 0.512. One is an all-time great isolation scorer who will test Aaron Gordon’s mobility on a calf that has bothered him all season. The other is a lights-out movement shooter who will be a focal point of Ty Lue’s play-calling. The Nuggets, of course, have their own wild card. They desperately need Michael Porter Jr. to snap out of his shooting funk in this series against the NBA’s third-best defense. Edge: Clippers.

Bigs

The Clippers are a little cursed from an awards eligibility standpoint. Powell would deserve Most Improved Player consideration if he had appeared in just six more games. Dunn would’ve made it onto some All-Defensive Team ballots, but he didn’t cross the 20-minute threshold enough nights. How about Ivica Zubac for both accolades? The Croatian big man has been that good. Averaging 16.7 points, he was perhaps the second-best post-up center in the NBA this season behind Nikola Jokic. And he at least has the size and strength to make Jokic work at the other end. Interestingly, Jokic averaged only 5.7 assists against the Clippers in three regular-season matchups, his fewest against any opponent. Still, it’s Jokic. If Zubac ever gets in foul trouble, Los Angeles will have to go small. Edge: Nuggets.

Bench

Youth vs. Experience, mostly. Aside from Westbrook — whose defensive reinforcements might be an important aspect of this series against Harden — the Nuggets will be choosing from a selection of reserves on rookie contracts. Interim coach David Adelman seems open to adjusting his rotation on a game-by-game basis. Will he need to roll out Julian Strawther in hopes of generating an offensive spark off the bench? Is Jalen Pickett ready for the playoff moment? Can Peyton Watson make a few momentum plays? Denver has an abundance of uncertainty. The Clippers have veteran scoring in Bogdan Bogdanovic, defense in Derrick Jones Jr., and toughness in Nicolas Batum. Edge: Clippers.

Coaching

Lue is too decorated, too universally respected to catch a stray here. He won an NBA championship in Cleveland. And he’s probably going to earn Coach of the Year votes for the job he’s done this season, despite Leonard’s fickle health and Paul George’s departure in free agency. The Clippers were widely projected to be a lottery team. “I can’t wait to prove everybody wrong,” Lue told ESPN last August after George walked away for a max contract in Philadelphia. Now it’s Adelman’s turn to try to prove this article wrong. Edge: Clippers.

— Bennett Durando, The Denver Post

Five things to watch

Adelman’s first playoff test: On Wednesday, asked how much he felt this Nuggets playoff run was an audition for Denver’s permanent head-coaching job, interim head coach David Adelman relented.

“I don’t see this as an audition,” Adelman said. “I see this as — this franchise, this organization already has given me a chance for eight years. I owe them that.”

He’s far from untested, a staple of Malone’s staff since 2017 who schemed against a different version of this Clippers playoff roster back in 2019-20. But Adelman’s now the head of the snake, with all of three regular-season games under his belt as the Nuggets’ head coach since Malone’s firing. He’ll have to get creative with scheming pick-and-roll coverages against the Clippers’ James Harden, who Adelman affirmed Wednesday was one of the best P&R operators “ever.” How Adelman handles Harden and the Clippers could determine his fate in Denver.

A new Ivica Zubac: Let’s hop in a time machine and head back to Game 7 of the 2019-20 Western Conference semifinals, when the Nuggets’ young core rode an early crowning moment to a gritty win over the Clippers. Los Angeles’ starting center then was a 23-year-old Zubac, who was so ineffective he was played entirely off the floor in 14 minutes.

Five years later, Zubac is a different player, taking such a large leap in 2024-25 that he’s merited both Most Improved Player and All-NBA consideration. He’s averaging roughly 20 points and 13 rebounds since the start of March, is the linchpin of the Clippers’ interior defense, and has developed a go-to push floater working with James Harden in the pick-and-roll. Nobody has proven truly capable of handling Nikola Jokic one-on-one, but Zubac is as good of a center matchup as Jokic will face in the Western Conference bracket.

The Clippers’ stout core: Since Kawhi Leonard made his return to Los Angeles’ lineup Jan. 4, the Clippers are 26-11, and have hit another gear as Leonard has transformed into the two-way force of old (26.5 points per game in his last 15 games). Even more dangerous, their four best players — Leonard, Harden, Zubac and Powell — have a net rating of plus-6.8 when they share the floor. They’re a near-perfect offensive complement, with Harden as lead ball-handler, Powell as an elite catch-and-shoot threat and Leonard a dominant isolation wing scorer.

Can Watson be the stopper? In late March, Michael Malone started Peyton Watson in Denver’s backcourt, tasking him with guarding Utah’s Collin Sexton. Watson smothered the sparkplug guard, holding him to 20 points on 18 shots. With a thin Nuggets bench, Watson will likely be asked to do something similar against Los Angeles.

Last year, the UCLA product was sacked from Malone’s playoff rotation in Denver’s semifinal loss to Minnesota. But he’s shown enough in 2024-25 that interim head coach David Adelman will call upon him for playoff minutes. Watson will get his chances to guard the Clippers’ best — whether it be Harden, Kawhi Leonard or Norman Powell — and continue to prove he should be viewed as part of Denver’s foundation, as he stands eligible for an extension next year.

MPJ playing for his future?: In the fall of 2024, Michael Porter Jr. set off a buzz when he told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne that if the Nuggets didn’t win a championship in 2024-25, they “all know they might have to break it up.”

Ownership has already rocked the Nuggets’ staff and front office with the firings of Malone and Booth. And if the Nuggets get bounced early, Porter stands as a logical member of the core group to be shipped off with two more years remaining on his contract. He’s an elite shooter and supplementary scorer, but hasn’t shown much growth in his all-around game since winning a title in 2022-23. After well-documented struggles in the Nuggets’ series loss to the Timberwolves last year, this is a prove-it playoff for Porter.

— Luca Evans, The Denver Post

Staff predictions

Bennett Durando, Nuggets beat writer: This series is anti-math. Denver attempted a league-low 31.4 shots beyond the arc per 100 possessions this season. The Clippers attempted 33.8 — second-fewest in the West. They’re not like other teams that have blowtorched the Nuggets’ unsightly defense with 3s. That’s why I like the matchup for them, even if the opponent is absurdly tough for a No. 5 seed. Nuggets in seven.

Troy Renck, sports columnist: This is a chance to salvage the season. David Adelman is known as an offensive genius. He must design plays for Nikola Jokic to create easy looks against Ivica Zubac, who will likely guard the Nuggets star without help. Aaron Gordon has to keep a resurgent Kawhi Leonard to 20 points per game, and, fingers crossed, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. shoot 3s with alarming accuracy to overcome expected foolish mistakes by Russell Westbrook. Nuggets in seven.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Talk about contrasts. The Nuggets’ coaching staff features two sons of former NBA head coaches. The Clips’ coaching staff features three former NBA head coaches — including one with a championship ring (Tyronn Lue). Still, when it comes to the NBA Playoffs, the best player on the floor is the one who dictates a series. As long as Nikola Jokic is in Beast Mode and David Adelman doesn’t let L.A. steal Game 1 or 2, the Joker dances on. Nuggets in six.

Luca Evans, sports reporter: Sure, Denver looks rejuvenated under David Adelman. But goodness, what a first-round draw. The Clips have won eight straight and ride into the postseason at 15-2 in their last 17 games. James Harden is playing perhaps his best ball since his Houston days. Ivica Zubac is suddenly a top-five center in the league. And Playoff Kawhi is lurking like the Grim Reaper. I lean toward the Clippers’ defensive depth, greater variety of shot-makers and Ty Lue’s coaching guile. Clippers in six. 

Matt Schubert, sports editor: The Clippers are roping us in again. Getting us to buy Kawhi Leonard’s recent run of good health. Getting us to envision James Harden coming through in the postseason. Getting us to believe Ty Lue has found the winning formula. Getting us to forget … they’re the Clippers. Strong closing kick or not, this is a franchise synonymous with disappointment. And that’s not going away with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray warming up on the other end of the court? Nuggets in six.

Series schedule

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