Is Trump responsible for the performance of stocks? He thinks so, but only if they're up.

• Donald Trump's MO is to take credit for the performance of the stock market — but only when it's rising.
• The president said the market still belonged to Joe Biden when pointing to the decline in stocks this year.
• Trump has tried to take credit for stock gains even when he wasn't in the White House.

Donald Trump has used the stock market as a scorecard in the past, so it might make sense to look at a chart of the S&P 500 year-to-date and wonder if the president thinks his performance could be better.

Judging by Trump's own words on Wednesday, that's not the case.

Following his 100th day in office, data showed the US economy contracted last quarter for the first time in three years. Stocks reacted negatively, but the president said the market still belonged to former President Joe Biden, redirecting blame for the 6% decline in the S&P 500 this year.

"This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's. I didn't take over until January 20th," Trump wrote in a post on his social media platform Wednesday.

"Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden 'Overhang.' This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other," he added.

For those following along since his first term, it was a familiar sight. The president has often taken credit for stock gains—even during times he was not in the White House — and blamed others for losses.

In March, shortly after returning to the White House and as the market tumbled from all-time highs reached in February, he suggested that investors shouldn't be watching stocks, though he referred to the market's gains during his first term as an "amazing achievement."

"You can't really watch the stock market," Trump said in an interview with Fox News in early March after tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China were first unveiled. "If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We have a quarter. We go by quarters."

The Trump bump

The comments shifting blame are the opposite of what Trump has claimed relatively recently. He has put the success of the stock market front and center as his doing.

The day before his inauguration, Trump said that the rise in stock prices was the "Trump effect."

"Everyone is calling it the — I don't want to say this, it's too braggadocious, but we'll say it anyway — the Trump effect. It's you. You're the effect," Trump said at a rally in Washington. "Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small-business optimism has soared a record 41 points to a 39-year high. Bitcoin has shattered one record high after another."

That's plausible, as markets had initially priced in a big boost to growth and economic activity. However, expectations were recalibrated once he took office, as it became clear that the trade war would be more aggressive than anyone predicted.

However, Trump has even taken credit when he wasn't anywhere near the levers of power in Washington, DC.

"THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET," Trump wrote in a January 2024 Truth Social post. "BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP."

Perhaps the best example of the president's eagerness to take credit for the market's good fortune came in 2020, when Trump sent Fox News host Lou Dobbs an autographed chart of the Dow Jones Industrial average, which shot up 2,000 points in a single day after he declared COVID-19 an emergency.

While Trump has historically highlighted the stock market to showcase his achievements as president, his team has suggested this time around that he's got his eye on a different scorecard: the 10-year US Treasury yield.

The key bond yield is a reflection of long-term interest rates in the economy. That ties into the president's goal of lowering borrowing costs for Americans, which was a central point in his campaign for president last year.